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Scholars zoom in on uncertainty in science and policy during recent SOCRATES Workshop

Scholars zoom in on uncertainty in science and policy during recent SOCRATES Workshop

View of panelists during workshop, with chairs and tables and some audience members in the foreground. View of panelists during workshop, with chairs and tables and some audience members in the foreground. View of panelists during workshop, with chairs and tables and some audience members in the foreground.
© Saeid Ebrahimi
Panel Discussion during the workshop. From left to right: Speakers Tyler DesRoches, Futura Venuto, and Jakob Ortmann.
View of Joel Katzav on the screen with audience members' backs in the foreground. View of Joel Katzav on the screen with audience members' backs in the foreground. View of Joel Katzav on the screen with audience members' backs in the foreground.
© Saeid Ebrahimi
Joel Katzav was brought in online to give his talk on "Possibilistic Assessment of Uncertainty about Future Climate and the Case of Marine Ice-cliff Instability".
View of seminar room with Margherita Harris, Joe Roussos and Mathias Frisch on the left listening to speaker Jakob Ortmann at the front of the room looking at the camera. View of seminar room with Margherita Harris, Joe Roussos and Mathias Frisch on the left listening to speaker Jakob Ortmann at the front of the room looking at the camera. View of seminar room with Margherita Harris, Joe Roussos and Mathias Frisch on the left listening to speaker Jakob Ortmann at the front of the room looking at the camera.
© Leonie Wiemeyer
Jakob Ortmann during his presentation on uncertainty talk, with organisers Margherita Harris and Joe Roussos and SOCRATES director Mathias Frisch in the audience.
© Leonie Wiemeyer
Futura Venuto presenting her talk "Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Projections: Why Prefer Possibilities to Probabilities".

One of the most pressing and complex challenges in both science and policymaking is understanding, quantifying, and communicating uncertainty. On June 16, 2025, scholars gathered at Leibniz University Hannover for a one-day SOCRATES workshop dedicated to this issue.

The event brought together philosophers of science, climate researchers, and policy theorists, whom together explored a range of compelling questions: What makes uncertainty measurable in some contexts and elusive in others? Is probability always the most reliable framework for managing uncertainty, or are alternative approaches such as possibilistic thinking more appropriate in fields like climate science?

Presentations throughout the day addressed both theoretical and practical dimensions of uncertainty. Topics ranged from marine ice-cliff instability and climate nudging to the communicative limits of probabilistic models and the performativity of scientific language. The workshop highlighted the value of interdisciplinary perspectives and open-ended dialogue in confronting cases where uncertainty resists simplification. A final panel discussion invited participants to reflect on whether the frameworks we currently rely on are sufficient, or whether we need to embrace the limits of what can be known, predicted, or planned for.

This SOCRATES workshop created a space for rigorous exchange and critical thinking, opening new paths for understanding uncertainty not as a failure of knowledge but as an essential feature of scientific and societal reasoning.

Photos of the workshop can be viewed online here.